How big is Bitcoin's security budget gap?
As of 2026-09-11, Bitcoin pays about 0.82% of its market capitalisation a year for security. Against a 1% target, the gap is $2.75B a year — about $7.5M a day, or $52.4K per block, at a $1.55T market cap.
How the ratio is built
Miner revenue is a flow; what it protects is a stock. The ratio puts one over the other: annualised miner revenue divided by market capitalisation. At spot, Bitcoin’s miners are paid about $12.77B a year; 1% of a $1.55T market cap is $15.52B. The difference is the gap.
Where the 1% comes from
It is not this page’s number. Lyn Alden puts a healthy security spend at 0.5%–1.5% of market cap a year. James McAvity put it at 1–1.5% as of October 2023. Hasu defined the ratio in these terms in 2020, measured it at 2% at the time, and declined to name a floor. 1% is a heuristic inside that spread, not a threshold derived from an attack model. At the bottom of Alden’s band, 0.5%, there is no gap today — there is one from the 2028 halving, which no floor choice affects; see the 2028 figure.
Three bases
| Basis | Ratio | Gap / yr | Market cap to cover it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing-year revenue over spot market cap | 0.92% | $1.23B | $23.58B |
| Trailing-year revenue over average market cap | 0.86% | $2.12B | $40.68B |
| Spot run-rate revenue over spot market cap (published) | 0.82% | $2.75B | $52.95B |
Three ways to measure the same ratio, all published. None of the three closes the gap.
Check it yourself
Both inputs are public. Annualised miner revenue: sum the last 1,008 blocks’ rewards on mempool.space and scale to 52,560 blocks a year. Market cap: any aggregator. Divide.
This page as a shareable image: the-gap.png — 1200×675, with this address and the as-of date in the picture.
